Two decisions made in quick succession of one
another create a toxic mix that will likely domestically bolster
President Museveni but sour his relations internationally.
The decision by the National Resistance Movement
(NRM) caucus in Parliament to endorse Museveni for a fifth elective term
in office as President, and his payback by agreeing to sign onto the
anti-homosexuality Bill passed by Parliament in December 2013, have set
the stage for what could see growth in President Museveni’s domestic
ratings but a sharp drop in his international profile.
US President Barack Obama said he was “deeply
disappointed,” in a swift response to Mr Museveni’s apparent
capitulation on the Bill which he declined to sign in December.
Obama warned: “As we have conveyed to President
Museveni, enacting this legislation will complicate our valued
relationship with Uganda.” That statement is likely to tie in with a
perception in the West that a leader who has stayed in power for 30
years or more is no longer good for business.
A strong pro-gay lobby meeting receptive ears in
the US White House, and a powerful media machinery, means a likelihood
that, going forward, Mr Museveni will be projected not as the once “new
breed of African leader” but an autocrat and intolerant ruler who has
manipulated his way to staying in power for life at the cost of not just
political rights to freedom of assembly as expressed in the treatment
of political opponents but also hostile to freedom.
Dr Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, an International Law
expert, observes that as much a Uganda is not unique in passage of this
legislation, and that the president tried to cushion himself against
criticism by first seeking expert opinion, the question that remains is
whether the country will be able to withstand the pressure caused by the
powerful anti-gay lobby, especially on financing.
Dr Kasaija says that though the government has
projected stable financial growth rates over the next few years,
continued scaling down of donor budget support will have an impact.
He expressed concern that the gay lobby might actually pour money into the country but not for government support.
Dr Kasaija noted that taken together, gays rights
and other human rights can trigger very bad ratings quoting a recent gay
rights barometer that scored Uganda poorly on all 14 indicators.
Mr Museveni’s bigger concern, however, will be
western media which is likely to link everything together to create a
caricature of an ageing autocratic ruler intolerant of any and
everything.
The coverage of the winter Olympics in Russia give
just a pointer to what is likely to follow Mr Museveni’s decisions over
the last one week. Every little mistake is likely to gain a life of its
own.
The Western world’s tendency of dumping leaders
who have been two decades in power or longer means Mr Museveni will be
easy prey but this is exactly what leaders who have stayed long in power
love, global (Western) distaste is easily exploitable for domestic
gain.
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